Thunder’s defense malaise doesn’t mean this season hasn’t been a rough go for him on that end, particularly as of late, nor does it mean that changes would be a bad idea to explore.
In the third quarter of the Thunder’s meltdown vs. the Boston Celtics at home Sunday, Enes Kanter came in at the 5:40 mark with OKC trying to preserve a 65-57 lead. For the remainder of the third, the Celtics outscored the Thunder 15-9. Kanter committed three fouls in less than six minutes, all of them shooting fouls.
To start the fourth, Billy Donovan — trying to save his starters to close the game — went with an all-bench unit of D.J. Augustin, Dion Waiters, Kyle Singler, Nick Collison and Kanter. They were outscored by 11 points in the opening 4:30 of the final period. Donovan countered with Steven Adams, which slowed the bleeding but the momentum had shifted and OKC couldn’t recover.
The meltdown wasn’t Kanter’s fault. Dion Waiters was just as bad (a minus-21 with some bad perimeter rotations) and mostly, to be honest, it was just a matter of the Celtics playing better. Boston had great performances from Kelly Olynyk defensively and Marcus Smart on both sides of the ball.
However, Kanter entered the season with questions about his ability to contribute meaningfully to a perceived championship contender. His production has always been superb, but his defense, through eye test or data, is a disaster.
Kanter’s production is incredible. He’s averaging 21 points and 14 rebounds per 36 minutes on 57 percent shooting. That’s good. You can talk about stat-padding or whatever, but Kanter is a gifted scorer, great on putbacks and makes the Thunder offense an absolute monster. With Kanter on the court, the Thunder score 109 points per 100 possessions, the third-best mark for any OKC player outside of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.
Their defense, however, gives up 105.3 points per 100 possessions, 10.2 points worse than when he sits. That’s an issue.
However, most Thunder fans would probably expect me to say that Kanter shouldn’t play at all, that on a team with the kind of scoring power the Thunder have, his offensive firepower is redundant and unnecessary. After all, I torched the decision to match a max offer for him this summer. But not so fast. I have a different idea.
Start him.
The long and short of it is this: The Thunder bench lineups are better trying to win defensive matchups, but are limited because of Kanter’s presence, and while the starters for OKC don’t, in any way, need Kanter. Their offense is so dominant for long stretches that his defensive liabilities are irrelevant, because they simply crush everyone offensively.
The two-spot is a fluid position for OKC. Anthony Morrow, Dion Waiters, and Andre Roberson all have had stints with the starting unit. With Kevin Durant still out for at least another five days, you have to consider that as well. Here’s a look at four key combinations with Kanter and how they perform per 100 possessions.
So what you see there is that even though with Westbrook, Durant, and Ibaka alongside the big Turkish monster, they still give up 107.1 points per 100 possessions — a truly terrible mark — they’re still scoring an obscene 150.2 per 100. All of this is a small sample size (that combo has only played 47 minutes together this year), but that’s still an entire game at that rate, which is just crazy.
Meanwhile, you put Kanter next to Waiters, and the defense still isn’t good while the offense plummets into a volcano never to be heard from again.
What’s tough about this is that Steven Adams has undeniably earned the starting spot. The Thunder are plus-13.4 per 100 possessions, which is 12 points better than when he’s off-court, and the defense is 12 points better with Adams on than Kanter on. Kanter is only a plus-4.2, which is 6.1 points worse than when he’s on the bench.
That’s a lot of numbers, so let me simplify: Adams’ defense is good, Kanter’s is bad, and the team is better with Adams on than with Kanter.
However, at this point Kanter’s production isn’t helping the bench unit enough, and you have to find a way to make his strengths into actual strengths and not neutral additions. Kanter only played 16 minutes vs. the Celtics, before Donovan had to yank him. The Thunder are paying him a lot sure, but it’s also clear that he can help. Yet instead of being the offensive boost to the bench, he’s hurting them defensively while not carrying the offense enough.
Much of this is the product of the fall-off of Nick Collison, a phenomenal pro and franchise anchor for OKC since they were in Seattle. He’s had a long and illustrious career with OKC, but he’s expected to cover for Kanter and while the defense actually is fine when those two play together, the offense goes in the toilet.
(By the way, just as I wrote about last year, the two-guard spot needs to be Anthony Morrow and Waiters should anchor the bench unit. The offense with Waiters on the floor is really good, and he’s more comfortable having control of the ball. Morrow, who has really struggled to earn Donovan’s trust, continues to be a boon with his spacing, even when he’s not hitting shots.)
So you move Kanter to the starting unit, you blow teams away with offensive firepower, and you close with the current unit when Durant gets back along with Adams. Save your best lineup to finish when you need it, and start by rolling teams back off the floor with an offensive onslaught. Kanter’s good things make the great Thunder players even better, and his problems don’t hurt them. Start Kanter.
Source: http://mweb.cbssports.com/nba
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